Previous estimates have suggested that, globally, type 1 diabetes represents around 5–10% of the total prevalence of diabetes; however, these estimates are typically based on northern European populations, which have the highest incidence and prevalence rates of the condition. Therefore, this study aimed to provide country-specific, regional and global estimates of the incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes, by modelling data from the International Diabetes Federation Atlas in 2017 and extrapolating to fill in the gaps for countries without data.
The global incidence of type 1 diabetes in 2017 was estimated to be 234 710 cases per year. High-income countries accounted for 49% of the global incidence, despite making up only 17% of the population. Globally, 42% of incident cases occurred in those aged under 15 years, ranging from 34% in Europe to 55% in Africa.
Globally, there were an estimated 9 004 610 prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes, 59% of which were in people aged over 40 years. The relative proportions of type 1 diabetes varied considerably between populations; for example, in China, type 1 diabetes represented less than 1% of diabetes cases, whereas in the UK and Finland it accounted for 8.6% and 17.0%, respectively. Prevalence was roughly ten times higher in high-income than low-income countries.
Based on a number of sensitivity analyses, the authors concluded that their core model was reasonably accurate, with an uncertainty interval of around ±15%. However, further validation is needed due to limitations and assumptions related to data availability and estimation methods. Due to the likely differences between countries and regions, greater effort should be made to quantify the burden of type 1 diabetes across the world.
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