By Colin Kenny, GP, Dromore
It is recognised that knowledge is limited on the life-time risk of developing impaired glucose metabolism. In this prospective population-based cohort analysis, investigators used data from a large Dutch general practice database. General practitioners’ records were used to identify diagnostic events. Normoglycaemia, prediabetes and diabetes were defined by agreed World Health Organization criteria. The investigators then calculated life-time risk using a modified version of survival analysis (adjusted for the risk of death).
In the analysis, data were available on 10,050 participants over a period of up to 14.7 years. Of these, 1148 participants developed prediabetes, 828 developed diabetes, and 237 started insulin treatment. The researchers found that at age 45 years, the remaining life-time risk of progression from normoglycaemia was 48.7% for prediabetes, 31.3% for diabetes and 9.1% for insulin use. In individuals aged 45 years, the life-time risk to progress from prediabetes to diabetes was 74.0%. Individuals with severe obesity lived 10 glucose-impairment-free years less than normal-weight individuals did.
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